Moral hazard and lack of commitment in dynamic economies

We revisit the role of limited commitment in a dynamic risk-sharing setting with private information. We show that a Markov-perfect equilibrium, in which agent and insurer cannot commit beyond the current period, and an infinitely-long contract to which only the insurer can commit, implement identical consumption, effort and welfare outcomes. Unlike contracts with full commitment by the insurer, Markov-perfect contracts feature non-trivial and determinate asset dynamics. Numerically, we show that Markov-perfect contracts provide sizable insurance, especially at low asset levels, and are able to explain a significant part of wealth inequality beyond what can be explained by self-insurance. The welfare gains from resolving the commitment friction are larger than those from resolving the moral hazard problem at low asset levels, while the opposite holds for high asset levels.Moral hazard ; Risk

Suicide in Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada: a time trend analysis from 1981 to 2018

Background: The suicide rate in Canada decreased by 24% during the past four decades. However, rates vary between provinces and territories, and not all jurisdictions experienced the same changes. This study examined suicide rates over time in the province of Newfoundland and Labrador. Methods: We used cross-sectional surveillance data from the Canadian Vital Statistics Death Database to examine suicide rates in Newfoundland and Labrador from 1981 to 2018. We calculated annual age-standardized suicide mortality rates and used joinpoint regression to estimate the average annual percent change (AAPC) in suicide rates overall and by sex, age group, and means of suicide. Results: From 1981 to 2018, 1759 deaths by suicide were recorded among people in Newfoundland and Labrador. The age-standardized suicide mortality rate increased more than threefold over the study period, from 4.6 to 15.4 deaths per 100,000. The suicide rate was higher among males than females, and accounted for 83.1% of suicide deaths (n = 1462); the male-to-female ratio of suicide deaths was 4.9 to 1. The average annual percent change in suicide rates was higher among females than males (6.3% versus 2.0%). Age-specific suicide rates increased significantly for all age groups, except seniors (aged 65 or older); the largest increase was among youth aged 10 to 24 years old (AAPC 3.5; 95% CI, 1.6 to 5.5). The predominant means of suicide was hanging/strangulation/ suffocation, which accounted for 43.8% of all deaths by suicide. Conclusions: The suicide rate in Newfoundland and Labrador increased steadily between 1981 and 2018, which was in contrast to the national rate decline. The disparity between the provincial and national suicide rates and the variations by sex and age underscore the need for a public health approach to prevention that accounts for geographic and demographic differences in the epidemiology of suicide

Financial Structure and Economic Welfare: Applied General Equilibrium Development Economics

This review provides a common framework for researchers thinking about the next generation of micro-founded macro models of growth, inequality, and financial deepening, as well as direction for policy makers targeting microfinance programs to alleviate poverty. Topics include treatment of financial structure general equilibrium models: testing for as-if-complete markets or other financial underpinnings; examining dual-sector models with both a perfectly intermediated sector and a sector in financial autarky, as well as a second generation of these models that embeds information problems and other obstacles to trade; designing surveys to capture measures of income, investment/savings, and flow of funds; and aggregating individuals and households to the level of network, village, or national economy. The review concludes with new directions that overcome conceptual and computational limitations.National Science Foundation (U.S.)National Institutes of Health (U.S.)Templeton FoundationBill & Melinda Gates Foundatio

Materials and Component Development for Advanced Turbine Systems

Hydrogen-fired and oxy-fueled land-based gas turbines currently target inlet operating temperatures of ∼1425-1760°C (∼2600-3200°F). In view of natural gas or syngas-fired engines, advancements in both materials, as well as aerothermal cooling configurations are anticipated prior to commercial operation. This paper reviews recent technical accomplishments resulting from NETL’s collaborative research efforts with the University of Pittsburgh and West Virginia University for future land-based gas turbine applications

First demonstration of 30 eVee ionization energy resolution with Ricochet germanium cryogenic bolometers

The future Ricochet experiment aims to search for new physics in the electroweak sector by measuring the Coherent Elastic Neutrino-Nucleus Scattering process from reactor antineutrinos with high precision down to the sub-100 eV nuclear recoil energy range. While the Ricochet collaboration is currently building the experimental setup at the reactor site, it is also finalizing the cryogenic detector arrays that will be integrated into the cryostat at the Institut Laue Langevin in early 2024. In this paper, we report on recent progress from the Ge cryogenic detector technology, called the CryoCube. More specifically, we present the first demonstration of a 30~eVee (electron equivalent) baseline ionization resolution (RMS) achieved with an early design of the detector assembly and its dedicated High Electron Mobility Transistor (HEMT) based front-end electronics. This represents an order of magnitude improvement over the best ionization resolutions obtained on similar heat-and-ionization germanium cryogenic detectors from the EDELWEISS and SuperCDMS dark matter experiments, and a factor of three improvement compared to the first fully-cryogenic HEMT-based preamplifier coupled to a CDMS-II germanium detector. Additionally, we discuss the implications of these results in the context of the future Ricochet experiment and its expected background mitigation performance.Comment: 10 pages, 5 figures, 1 tabl

Fast neutron background characterization of the future Ricochet experiment at the ILL research nuclear reactor

The future Ricochet experiment aims at searching for new physics in the electroweak sector by providing a high precision measurement of the Coherent Elastic Neutrino-Nucleus Scattering (CENNS) process down to the sub-100 eV nuclear recoil energy range. The experiment will deploy a kg-scale low-energy-threshold detector array combining Ge and Zn target crystals 8.8 meters away from the 58 MW research nuclear reactor core of the Institut Laue Langevin (ILL) in Grenoble, France. Currently, the Ricochet collaboration is characterizing the backgrounds at its future experimental site in order to optimize the experiment's shielding design. The most threatening background component, which cannot be actively rejected by particle identification, consists of keV-scale neutron-induced nuclear recoils. These initial fast neutrons are generated by the reactor core and surrounding experiments (reactogenics), and by the cosmic rays producing primary neutrons and muon-induced neutrons in the surrounding materials. In this paper, we present the Ricochet neutron background characterization using $^3$He proportional counters which exhibit a high sensitivity to thermal, epithermal and fast neutrons. We compare these measurements to the Ricochet Geant4 simulations to validate our reactogenic and cosmogenic neutron background estimations. Eventually, we present our estimated neutron background for the future Ricochet experiment and the resulting CENNS detection significance.Comment: 14 pages, 14 figures, 1 tabl

Development of methods for the preparation of radiopure ⁸²Se sources for the SuperNEMO neutrinoless double-beta decay experiment

A radiochemical method for producing 82Se sources with an ultra-low level of contamination of natural radionuclides (40K, decay products of 232Th and 238U) has been developed based on cation-exchange chromatographic purification with reverse removal of impurities. It includes chromatographic separation (purification), reduction, conditioning (which includes decantation, centrifugation, washing, grinding, and drying), and 82Se foil production. The conditioning stage, during which highly dispersed elemental selenium is obtained by the reduction of purified selenious acid (H2SeO3) with sulfur dioxide (SO2) represents the crucial step in the preparation of radiopure 82Se samples. The natural selenium (600 g) was first produced in this procedure in order to refine the method. The technique developed was then used to produce 2.5 kg of radiopure enriched selenium (82Se). The produced 82Se samples were wrapped in polyethylene (12 μm thick) and radionuclides present in the sample were analyzed with the BiPo-3 detector. The radiopurity of the plastic materials (chromatographic column material and polypropylene chemical vessels), which were used at all stages, was determined by instrumental neutron activation analysis. The radiopurity of the 82Se foils was checked by measurements with the BiPo-3 spectrometer, which confirmed the high purity of the final product. The measured contamination level for 208Tl was 8-54 μBq/kg, and for 214Bi the detection limit of 600 μBq/kg has been reached.</p

Cancer Biomarker Discovery: The Entropic Hallmark

Background: It is a commonly accepted belief that cancer cells modify their transcriptional state during the progression of the disease. We propose that the progression of cancer cells towards malignant phenotypes can be efficiently tracked using high-throughput technologies that follow the gradual changes observed in the gene expression profiles by employing Shannon's mathematical theory of communication. Methods based on Information Theory can then quantify the divergence of cancer cells' transcriptional profiles from those of normally appearing cells of the originating tissues. The relevance of the proposed methods can be evaluated using microarray datasets available in the public domain but the method is in principle applicable to other high-throughput methods. Methodology/Principal Findings: Using melanoma and prostate cancer datasets we illustrate how it is possible to employ Shannon Entropy and the Jensen-Shannon divergence to trace the transcriptional changes progression of the disease. We establish how the variations of these two measures correlate with established biomarkers of cancer progression. The Information Theory measures allow us to identify novel biomarkers for both progressive and relatively more sudden transcriptional changes leading to malignant phenotypes. At the same time, the methodology was able to validate a large number of genes and processes that seem to be implicated in the progression of melanoma and prostate cancer. Conclusions/Significance: We thus present a quantitative guiding rule, a new unifying hallmark of cancer: the cancer cell's transcriptome changes lead to measurable observed transitions of Normalized Shannon Entropy values (as measured by high-throughput technologies). At the same time, tumor cells increment their divergence from the normal tissue profile increasing their disorder via creation of states that we might not directly measure. This unifying hallmark allows, via the the Jensen-Shannon divergence, to identify the arrow of time of the processes from the gene expression profiles, and helps to map the phenotypical and molecular hallmarks of specific cancer subtypes. The deep mathematical basis of the approach allows us to suggest that this principle is, hopefully, of general applicability for other diseases